WEBB/HAGEL AMENDMENT FORESHADOWS SEPTEMBER REALITY

By R. A. Pearson

On Wednesday, July 11, Senate Republicans defeated an amendment sponsored by two Vietnam combat veterans, Senators Jim Webb (D-Va.) and Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) that would have increased the time troops have at home before they return to war in Iraq or Afghanistan. The amendment would have provided the troops and marines as much time at home as they had spent away from home on tour in Iraq or Afghanistan. Time with their families, time to train, reequip, and recover from the hardships of what is now becoming a 15 to 18 month deployment. Military reserves and National Guard members would have had three years between deployments.

Fifty-six senators, including seven Republicans, voted in favor, but the measure fell short of the 60-vote supermajority Republicans had demanded, exploiting Senate rules for closure to end a filibuster.

The 40 some odd Republican Senators and Senate Republican leaders who voted against this amendment hauled out the old clichés, “We have not been attacked since we went on the offensive,” nonsense, and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said the plan would set a “dangerous precedent” that would “allow the political moment to take over troop deployments.” Of course President Bush said (and we paraphrase him here) Congress should let me run the war and they need to vote the funds for it.

It now appears that President Bush plans to run out the clock in Iraq. With 18 months left in his administration he plans to “stay the course in Iraq,” and it appears that 40 some odd Republicans in the Senate plan to give him political cover to do so using their antiquated rules of procedure, regardless of the will of the American people or the facts staring them in the face.

A new Gallup poll indicated that 71 percent of Americans favor withdrawing most troops by April 2008, and 62 percent say it was a mistake to send troops to Iraq. Gallup said that was a new high in opposition to the war.

As America awaits the Iraq report due the end of at the end of September by General David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, we all know what it will say. Petraeus will point to several areas where there is less violence. He will say the surge is working, especially in Al Anbar province, where the U.S. has equipped a newly allied Sunni militia led by local tribal sheiks to battle al Qaida, much to the chagrin of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Of course the sheiks will fight al Qaida, which make up one percent of the force in the area, and keep the modern weapons to use later against the Shiite forces in the Iraqi Civil War to come, much the way Chiang Kai-shek did in China during World War II. Unconfirmed reports indicate the al-Maliki government are asking the Bush government to recall Gen. Petraeus and renounce his policies. Gen. Petraeus of course will ask for more time. Meanwhile the war has cost an average of 100 killed and 12 billion dollars a month during the surge.

At the last report in early July, the Iraqi government had met none of the benchmarks according to Ambassador Crocker, and since the parliament went on vacation in August, it is doubtful anything will be accomplished during that month. By the report in September the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is still expected to be oh-fur in the major political goals of oil revenue sharing, debaathafication, the holding of provincial elections, amending the Iraqi constitution, and contributions to economic reconstruction. Crocker backed away from the benchmarks established in the war supplemental enacted this spring indicating “The longer I am here (Iraq), the more I am persuaded that progress in Iraq cannot be analyzed solely in terms of these discrete, precisely defined benchmarks because, in many cases, these benchmarks do not serve as reliable measures of everything that is important.” Crocker went on to suggest that a ‘realistic’ image of the political picture will not be available until late fall or even maybe November. John Kerry (D-Mass.) during his questioning of Crocker pointed out, “In a way the goalposts are now moving a little bit.”

The basic point is that Nouri al-Maliki’s government is made up of a coalition of Shiite militias. They do not want to make peace with the Sunnis, pass oil revenue sharing laws, let them back into government posts or help them out with economic or physical infrastructure. On August 1st six Sunni cabinet members left the government over the al-Maliki government’s failure to make any progress toward passing oil revenue sharing laws or disbanding the Shiite militias. Although al-Maliki’s government is Arab, they rely closely on their religious brothers, the Persian Shiite Iranians to their west. Like President Bush, al-Maliki’s government is playing a waiting game. He is waiting on the U.S. to leave. He said so on July 14th. Then the civil war/ethnic cleansing begins in earnest.

Meanwhile our fighting forces are stretched to the limit and in need of rest. The Military Officers Association of America, a nonpartisan group that represents 360,000 active and retired officers, endorsed the Webb/Hagel Amendment saying that the military is overstressed. It is clear today that the serge will not accomplish the goals set out for it by this September and that Nouri al-Maliki’s government will not accomplishment any of the political benchmarks by next September either. Yet 40 sum odd Republican Senators still cover the President’s ‘six.’ *

* Six- The term for one’s back. It was derived from the aviators ‘clock;’ that is 12:00 was head on and 6:00 at the back.