THE GEORGIA GUBERNATORIAL RACE 2010

By R. A. Pearson

The 2010 Georgia gubernatorial race features former Democratic Governor Roy Barnes and Republican Nathan Deal in a race believed by many political watchers to be a close election. Since the defeat of Barnes in 2002 by outgoing Governor Sonny Perdue, the Republicans have had an impressive hold on the state government of the Peach State; however, recent downturns in the economy of the state and resulting cutbacks in governmental services and education may create a voter backlash against the GOP.

As governor in late 1990s and early 2000s, Roy Barnes committed a number of political sins and was the proverbial political house in the wadi when the Republican rains gathered to finally wash the Democratic Party out of power in Georgia. Barnes’ most remembered faux pas was changing the state flag. While some Georgians agreed it had to be done, most Georgians disagreed with the way the flag was changed. They were especially appalled with the new state flag, the infamous ‘Barnes’ rag,’ a hideous banner many vexillologists described as over reaching, over indulgent, and grossly ugly, which replaced the old Georgia flag containing the state seal and Confederate Battle Flag in 2001. The ‘Barnes’ rag’ lasted about two years and was mercifully replaced by Governor Perdue soon after coming into office after he defeated Barnes in 2002.

However, the most far-reaching debacle of the Barnes’ tenure as governor was the attempted gerrymandering of the state which occurred after the 2000 census. The obvious attempt to keep Georgia in Democratic hands totally backfired in the state which for the first time voted for state candidates of the party of its national affiliation. The Republican wave caused many nominal Democratic state General Assembly members to switch party affiliation after the 2002 election, making Georgia a virtual one party state again, this time a Republican one party state.

During the same election Governor Barnes was able to alienate Georgia’s teachers with his famous quote saying, “Teachers don’t vote.” While Barnes had pushed for pay raises and higher educational spending, he also initiated a two-year education reform program that left many teachers feeling like he blamed them for low-test scores, low graduation rates, and other educational failings. Many teachers indicated they thought he was arrogant, did not listen to their suggestions, and treated them with respect. The remark was the straw on the donkey’s back that sent many Georgia teachers into the Perdue camp, and they showed up at the polls.

Barnes has tried to make his mea culpas to the educators of Georgia by speaking to teacher organizations and offering a more positive platform on educational issues. Educators as a group have been angry about pay cuts, furloughs, layoffs, larger class sizes, and program cuts coming from a Republican General Assembly and Governor Perdue. The state has more than 125,000 teachers plus principals and support staff. In addition there are retired educators, hundreds of thousands of family members who talk to and influence friends, and they could make a formidable impact on the election. If Barnes can really win the educators of Georgia, he may be able to pull off a victory on November 2.

On the new federal health care reform law passed by fellow Democrats in Washington, Barnes’ statements tend to be a little ambiguous as to where he really stands on the issue. He indicated the cost of implementing the law could be “financially devastating” for Georgia unless officials in Washington figure out a way to help the states cope with a staggering jump in Medicaid costs. He also indicated the total partisanship on the bill has made it very unpopular. “I consider it to be the greatest failure, modern failure, of political leadership in my lifetime. Everybody recognized ‘we’ve got to do something here,’ but there was such partisanship on it.” He went on to blame Democrats for failing to explain the plan better and Republicans for not delivering reasonable alternatives to the Democratic proposals, but he said ultimately the buck stopped with Obama and his failure to sell the plan to the American people during and after the legislative process.

Republican candidate Nathan Deal defeated front runner Karen Handel in a close runoff election on August 10. Deal came in second place out of a field of seven candidates in the Republican Primary on July 20 to take on Handel, backed by former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, in the runoff held in August. Deal was backed by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, but he was under a cloud of ethics allegations based on the Office of Congressional Ethics report he had influenced Georgia leaders to continue to have rebuilt vehicles inspected in order to create business for his company, Recovery Services, near Gainesville, Georgia. The profits from the inspections alone earned his company over $250,000 a year. While the Congressional ethics allegations went away when Deal resigned to run for Governor, some political watchers feel they could return to bite Deal at a later date.

Deal was elected to Congress in 1992 as a Democrat and switch to the Republican Party in 1995. He represented the northern part of the state, in the 9th Congressional District. In Congress he has oppose the “cap and trade” bill (a regulatory based approach used to control pollution on energy production), fought for the Republican issues in the health care debates, and pressed for a speedy and fair resolution to the Georgia, Florida, and Alabama water problems in the Chattahoochee-Flint-Apalachicola River basin.

In terms of Education, Deal may struggle to win teacher votes because of spending cutbacks by Republicans during the last years. His recent announcements about education included allowing schools to schedule tests when they thought best and plans to fight obesity by serving local vegetables in the school cafeterias. He plans to announce a comprehensive education package later in September.

However, it is the Georgia economy that should set the stage for the 2010 elections in the state. Nationally the unemployment rate has crept up to 9.6%, in Georgia it is more than 10% and the African-American unemployment in Georgia is estimated at over 13%. This does not include under-employment, those not working a full 40 hour week, or those who have given up on finding a job in today’s economy. An estimated one million Georgians will lose their homes this year to foreclosure; while in 2009, Georgia was in the top ten states in foreclosed upon homes. Georgia also leads the nation in bank failures.

Deal proposes the basic solutions to Georgia’s economic woes that Republicans tend to offer, tax cuts aimed at business. Among other things, Deal proposes to “cut corporate income tax by one-third; exempt businesses from corporate income tax in start-up years; eliminate the corporate ‘net worth’ tax; and allow local governments to exempt all business inventory from taxation.” Even after dramatic spending cuts in the last two years, Georgia’s state government still faces an standing deficit of $1.5 billion to $2 billion a year, according to the Georgia Budget and Policy Institute. Like our economic problems, that deficit is structural, meaning it will persist even as the national economy begins to recover. Addressing the structural deficit will require still deeper cuts in education and other programs. The question remains, “Is the deficit created by these tax cuts worth the cuts necessary to education and other programs and once the economy begins to recover, will Georgia lag behind the rest of the nation?”

Barnes plans a few government programs to help ease the state through the economic crisis, and he says these programs will put Georgians back to work. Barnes contends the programs are small and inexpensive; of course, what starts out small and inexpensive can grow. However, since Georgia already has one of the lowest state tax burdens in the country, the Barnes’ plan would do little damage to the Georgia budget or deficit although few economists believe they would be very effective.
Georgia spends over 55% of its revenue on education. It also provides and repairs roads, houses prisoners, holds courts, provides for law enforcement, helps provide for community health, and provides services its citizens never think of unless they are reminded of the these services by the media or by the absence of the service. The nation and Georgia today exist in challenging economic times. The November 2 Georgia Gubernatorial election will set the stage for the government of the Peach State for the next four years.

Roy Barnes and Nathan Deal have accepted an invitation to a debate which will originate from WALB-TV in Albany, Georgia, on October 19th at 7:00 p.m. The debate will be broadcast across Georgia on Raycom Media stations and will be live-streamed on walb.com. The Clarion Issue encourages all Georgia voters to watch the debate, follow the election, and vote for the candidate of your choice on November 2. If you live in another state, we encourage you to vote in your election there.