IS THE GENIE OUT OF THE BOTTLE IN IRAN?

By. R. A. Pearson

With the promise of free and fair elections from the government and ruling council of Iran, voters of the Islamic Republic went to the polls on June 12, 2009, and cast a reported 32 million votes. Even before the polls had closed election results showed the unpopular President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ahead with almost 63% of the vote to 34% for Mir-Hossein Mousavi the closest challenger. As Ahmadinejad’s lead held and he was declared the winner by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his hand picked Guardian Council, who had chosen the candidates for the election to begin with, Mousavi, the world, and the people of Iran cried foul. The problem for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Guardian Council, President Ahmadinejad, and the hard core Ayatollahs now in control of Iran’s government is the people of Iran did not stop crying foul, and they took their protests to the streets.

For the most part the protest was led by and made up of women. Women make up 60% of Iran’s collage population and turned out to vote en mass in the June 12 election. The face of the protest now bares the face of two women, Neda (Neda Agha Soltan), whose name means voice in Farsi, who was shot dead in the streets of Tehran and Faezeh Hashemi, the eldest daughter of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was arrested during the protests after the elections for openly supporting Mousavi at public rallies.

The government of Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei deployed the police, the Revolutionary Guards who tried to keep order without ‘cracking heads’ to end the protests; however, they soon sent in their storm troops, the Basij, who used batons, chains, and even guns on the protestors. They even called in help from Hezbollah thugs. Protestors were arrested, as were leaders of the opposition and their supporters. Members of the intellectual class such as college professors were arrested and foreign and unfriendly press agents were restricted and thrown out of the country.

However, the Ahmadinejad and Khamenei government could not hide the fact the election was a fraud. Iran has a 28% inflation rate and a 25% unemployment rate. Ahmadinejad has not paid the farm price supports in the farming villages began by Mousavi in the 1980s. Basically Ahmadinejad had no support and had not done well in the debates.

But the election has demonstrated to the world Iran’s Achilles’ Heel. The moderate clergy and politicians in Iran are opposed to Ahmadinejad and Khamenei as are some of the Revolutionary Guards. These leaders see the republican principals of the Islamic Republic being eroded by the strict rule of Khamenei and his conservative Ruling Council. They also see the sham of the June 12 election.

Here are some important leaders that may help swing Iran in a different direction in the near future in the wake of the election and protest. Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani the former president whose daughter was arrested during the protests following the election. He leads two influential councils and openly supported Mr. Moussavi’s election. At age 75, Mr. Rafsanjani heads two powerful institutions. One, the Assembly of Experts, is a body of clerics that has the authority to oversee and theoretically replace the country’s supreme leader. He also runs the Expediency Council, empowered to settle disagreements between the elected Parliament and the unelected Guardian Council. He could play a major role in unseating Khamenei.

The speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Ali Larijani, saw the election as flawed and is a believer in the rule of parliament over the theocratic forces that dominate the government of Iran today. He could lead the lawmakers in an “inside the beltway” revolt” against Ahmadinejad and Khamenei when the time is right.

The moderate clergy in Iran is led by Grand Ayatollah Yasubedin Rastegari who has been in prison since April 2004. He has been detained or arrested on numerous occasions for speaking against what he considered to be undemocratic legislation and activities of the government of Iran especially under Khamenei’s leadership.

The real wildcard may be the Revolutionary Guard itself. Mohsen Rezaee, one of the four candidates in the June election was a former commander of the guard. If the guard feels the Ahmadinejad and Khamenei government has forsaken the principals of the Islamic Republic it may turn on the government and side with the people in the style of the Russian Army 1917.

Today Iran is a power keg. With cell phones, Twitter, the internet, and all the forms of mass communication, it is hard for a government to suppress information. With a nation whose population is largely under 30 and unemployed, discontent is growing. The nation feels betrayed, it believes it spoke and the government turned a deaf ear to its calls for change.

As of July 9th the protesters are still out in Iran. Perhaps the Iranian genie is out of the bottle.