THE MOUNTAINS THEY MUST CLIMB: WHAT THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES MUST OVERCOME TO WIN IN NOVEMBER

By R. A. Pearson

The summer campaign season and party conventions are over, and now Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama must take their message to the voters of America in what appears to be a toss up election. Both candidates are well financed and the 527 groups are loaded for bear. However, both candidates have certain obstacles, even within their own parties, they must overcome if they hope to win in November. As the campaign season begins in earnest, as the political ads start to roll, as the polls that matter start to come in, we should take a look at the candidates and see what each candidate needs to overcome in order to win in November.

For John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the obvious first obstacle for the candidate is his age, 72. There have been times when Senator McCain has seemed addled on events, such as the time he got confused on the religious affiliates of the various parties in the Iraq conflict, confusing Sunni and Shiite factions, and the time he referred to Czechoslovakia, a state which no longer exists. Recently he mispronounced the name of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili several times while claiming to have personal contacts with the Georgian President.

The recent gain of McCain in the polls can be traced to his ability to finally unite his party. He seems to have brought in the Tom Tancredo anti-immigration wing although he supported a rather liberal comprehensive immigration package which angered the anti immigration faction in the Republican Party. With the addition of Gov. Palin to the ticket he also seems to be winning the majority of the evangelical Christian vote, although how much and how enthusiastically has yet to be seen. McCain’s stance on Supreme Court and other judges and his anti-abortion feelings will also hurt his chances as he tries to pick up any Democratic women voters still upset over the defeat of Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Presidential nomination contest.

At times during the summer McCain’s campaign looked disorganized, off message, and mismanaged. When Obama was in Germany making his speech to some 200,000 Germans, McCain was in Columbus, Ohio, at Schmidt’s Fudge Haus buying a box of truffles and dining at a German Restaurant on German Sausages. Later the Senator was in New Orleans for a tour of oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico to prove they were safe and efficient, but the plans had to be scrapped due to Hurricane Dolly which closed down the oil rigs. Almost simultaneously a massive oil spill in the Mississippi River occurred when a tugboat collided with an oil tanker spilling almost 450,000 gallons of heavy fuel oil into the Mississippi River. New management has brought the McCain campaign more in line and on message; however, McCain has a tendency to get off message and onto more comfortable ground, especially in his easily orchestrated, softball pitching, “preaching to the choir” town hall meetings.

In terms of the economy McCain has two problems. The first is he has admitted he does not have a firm handle on economic issues, an honest strait talk admission of weakness on his part but one that may hurt him in the weakened economy. The other is he is a free trade Republican, a stand that may hurt his chances to pick up the votes of those lunch box blue collar and other middle class Reagan Democrats he will need to carry the all important battleground states such as Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and several others that will be in play in this election. Polls show voters prefer Obama 50% to 30% to McCain when it comes to the economy.

The McCain energy program, at least when it comes to off shore drilling, seems to be playing well with voters. Over 65% of American voters want off shore drilling to lower gas prices; however, most of these voters are in the heartland where off shore drilling would have little affect on their economy or environment. Where McCain’s energy meets resistance in the heartland is with his nuclear energy policy. While Cleveland, Ohio, voters may see no problem with an oil well off the coast of California, they do not want to see a nuclear power plant one mile away from the Cleveland Wal-Mart. McCain indicated he would have returned Congress to Washington over the summer break to pass important energy legislation; however, in 2007 McCain missed 11 energy related votes on topics such as automobile fuel economy, offshore Virginia drilling, refinery construction, renewable electricity mandates, energy efficiency, support for biofuels, and other energy issues. He also failed to point out at the same time he was calling for Congress to return, Pres. Bush was in Bejing hobnobing with the corporate Communists at the Olympic games or on vacation at his Texas ranch.

On Iraq McCain contends America can “win the war” by staying. Here most Americans want to leave Iraq and the Bush administration and Iraqi government are agreeing to “time horizons” sometime at the end of 2010. This is almost a stab in the back for the McCain position. The Arizona Senator may have another problem with his Iraq policy. The Center for Responsive Politics reports the troops on the battlefield are giving money six to one to Obama over McCain. While it is hard to read the tea leaves on this one, America has to realize the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been fought by .05% of the American population, many of whom have now served three or four tours in the war zones. It is also a fact the Army has seen a sharp increase in the number of younger officers resigning their commissions. Whether this money is coming from the officers, the enlisted personnel, or the military as a whole, it could spell trouble for the Republicans if they loose the military vote.

McCain’s recent ‘house gaffe’ really hurt him with the American people. Most Americans know how many houses they own. To not know he owned seven homes showed him a little out of touch with the typical American struggling with real ‘kitchen table’ issues in today’s economy.

However, McCain’s worst enemy is the unpopularity of the current president, George Bush. In what has been billed as the “New Misery Index” (remembering Ronald Regan’s “Misery Index” of 1980) if you add those who believe the country is going the wrong way to those who dislike the job President Bush is doing the “New Misery Index” equals about 160%. This lands squarely on the back of the Republican standard bearer. Republican Representative Tom Davis of Virginia quipped, “The Republican brand is in the trash can. I've often observed that if we were a dog food, they would take us off the shelf.” McCain may be a maverick, but if the Democrats can weld him to the Republicans in general and Pres. Bush in particular, it will be a long campaign for McCain.

Nation wide polls show the Hispanic vote, other than the Cuban vote in Florida, breaking for Obama, putting Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico in play. This could not bode well for McCain. Another factor, the purchase of Budweiser by the Belgian Company InBev may include the American distribution of the Cuban beers Bucanero and Cristal beer by Budweiser and InBev, a move which could cost McCain the Cuban vote in Florida, a state seen by many to be already in play.

To win McCain must get out of the town halls and address real non-committed voters, not just the converted. He needs to sharpen his economic message. He must also hold the Bush states of 2004. He needs to end his gaffes, stay on the message of the day, and put as much distance between himself and Pres. Bush as possible.

For Barack Obama, and his running mate, Joseph Biden of Delaware, there are also a host of mountains to climb to win the electoral votes needed to win in November. Obama’s obvious weakness is his lack of experience in politics; however, many Americans consider this a positive. He has also been forced to spend a lot of time attempting to unite a divided party, had his patriotism questioned, and must convince the American people he is a fit commander-in-chief of our nation’s armed forces. His hills are just as high as his Republican rival’s.

For Obama the major hurdle is his inexperience. During the last Presidential election he was in the Illinois Senate with his eyes on a U.S. Senate seat. One of the best things to happen to Obama was the cartoon cover of the New Yorker showing him and his wife because the cover caused such a stir if kept people from reading the article inside. The article by Ryan Lizza indicated Obama had moved up in Chicago politics very quickly and never really became proficient in any elected position. He never held leadership roles in the State Legislature and his bid for the presidency after only two years in the U.S. Senate is seen as premature. Lizza indicates people who knew, worked with and liked Obama felt he was over ambitious, never really settling into a job and learning it, passing real positive legislation, and working with legislators on tough bills especially with those across the aisle. Lizza concludes Obama was always trading up and the fact he is accused of a lack of experience is justified for those who wish to point to that fact.

Obama has also had his patriotism questioned. The criticism for his refusal to wear a flag pin on his lapel was a little over the top promulgated by the right wing talk show hosts who are predisposed to eat the elephant crap off the street; however, at one point he did not put his hand over his heart during the national anthem at a major event. This is not unpatriotic, it is correct to simply stand at attention unless you are wearing a hat, them one removes the hat and holds it over their heart. Individuals express their patriotism in different ways. Let’s not let ‘can I borrow a hit of oxycodone’ Rush Limbaugh tell the nation how patriotism needs to be expressed.

In reference to Iraq, Obama plans to withdraw from the conflict with in two years of becoming president. This plan now seems in line with Iraqi wishes. A major problem with Obama’s Iraq policy could come in the form of American backlash from the 2006 elections when voters gave Democrats control of the House and Senate upon the promise the party would stop the war in Iraq. While there was weak posturing and maneuvering in both houses to end funding for the war, the leadership of both houses of Congress capitulated to the Bush administration and voted to fund the war when they could have not voted the funds. How much voters blame Obama for the Democratic failure on this issue remains to be seen.

On the issue of Commander-in-Chief, voters prefer McCain 50% to Obama 40% in a general average of the polls. Here Obama has climbed a little over the summer since his favorable trip overseas. McCain's team sought to highlight Obama's failure to visit wounded troops from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars at the Landstuhl US military hospital in Germany as a failure on Obama’s part and here the Democrat was between the proverbable rock and a hard place. If he went it was “political;” if he did not he was failing the troops. His decision not go to the hospital was probably the only real hiccup of the trip. However, Obama’s week off in August as the Georgia crisis unfolded in Asia let McCain and Republican 527 ads define Obama on certain issues with negative ads.

It seems the Democrats and Obama may be coming around on off shore drilling as long as the energy package is inclusive and includes all types of energy solutions to the energy problems. However, Americans must realize this is a complex problem and deserves a complicated solution. There is no easy solution to a problem America and its political and industrial leaders have ignored for 40 years.

Another major problem Obama must overcome is to unite the Democrats. He still faces a disunited party with Hillary PUMAS (Party Unity My Ass) angry about the way women have been treated within the party and the nation as a whole and angry lunch bucket blue-collar Democrats unsure of his ability to identify with their issues. Obama needs votes in the rust belt states of Ohio, Michigan, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania to win in November.

Obama is also relying on a massive youth vote, especially on college campuses. Will these potential voters vote? In a day when college is more expensive, loans are harder to obtain, and students graduate with more debt than ever before, these young people have a lot at stake. This may be the year they vote in record numbers and the Obama forces are well organized on campuses all over America to help make it happen.

However, the elephant in the room, pardon the pun on party mascots, is the fact even Obama has alluded too, he is African-American. While the news media politely tap dances around this by calling his campaign “historic,” the question really is, “Will white Americans vote for an African-American.” If so why were so many lunch box Democrats unwilling to switch from Senator Clinton’s camp to Obama when their platforms were virtually the same? America may still hold strong racial feeling deep inside, and this election may expose them.

To win Obama must convince America what his idea of change is all about. He needs to flesh it out and discuss how he will pay for it. He needs to stay strong on Iraq. He must win over the PUMAS, the lunch box Democrats, and get out the youth vote. Finally he needs to wear a blue shirt now and then; this may help with many of the groups he needs to win over.

For both candidates the race to November 4 is less than 50 days away. Which candidate can climb the mountains and win the voters he needs to win will be watched and analyzed by America’s voters in the next month and a half.