WHAT DID WE LEARN FROM THE 2008 PRIMARIES?

By R. A. Pearson

On June 3, the five-month primary process ended with Democratic Senator Barack Obama clinching the Democratic Party’s nomination for president with a combination of elected and super delegates thus defeating Senator Hillary Clinton for the party’s top spot on the ticket. Republican Senator John McCain had won his party’s nod for the presidential run several months earlier due to different party rules practiced in the primary process. What led to the victories and defeats of these and other candidates in the primary races and what can be learned from the process?

Both parties saw candidates sit out or fail to fully organize and run in all contests. The Republican’s early front-runner Rudy Giuliani took a pass on the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire opting instead for a stand in Florida, a more cosmopolitian state, whose primary was held in late January. By then he had surrendered his front runner status to John McCain who won Florida’s 57 delegates with 36% of the vote, the Sunshine state being a winner take all Republican primary race. Giuliani was de facto out of the race.

Failure to organize and fully participate in major caucus states was how Obama won the Democrartic nomination. The candidate from Chicago realized the importance of grass roots organization and simply out-orgniazed the Clinton forces especially in the smaller, western, usually “red” states with small but important delegate votes. He was able to secure a large number of delegates, enough to lead Senator Clinton by a large margin by the end of March. Since the Democratic party divides their delegates proportionally, Clinton’s large victories in many “blue collar” states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania made little impact on the actual delegate count. There was no doubt mistakes were made in the Clinton campaign; however, the big one was made early on when it did not plan to play in the caucus states and failed to really plan past “Super Tuesday.”

Perhaps one of the most interesting events of the 08 primary season was the advent or invent of Fred Thompson, a former senator and actor who entered the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. When many Republicans expressed a dislike for the choices in the race a group of party big wigs pressed Thompson into the race. Many baby-boomers will remember the rock band the Monkeys, an American group created to resemble the Beatles. Each Monkey was patterned to resemble a Beatle, and the one real musician in the band was lead guitarist Michael Nesmith. The Monkeys had a few hits like “Last Train to Clarksville” and “I’m a Believer” and we all had at least one Monkeys album we hauled around for years, and we may have watched their TV show but not many of us went out and got all their LPs once they were released in CD form. Like the Monkeys, Fred Thompson’s campaign was a flash in the pan. He was unable to raise money or get votes proving you cannot create a candidate in a smoke filled back room in Washington D.C.

This primary season has also changed the way campaigns look at finances. In both parties the candidates that led in traditional fund raising, with big wealthy individual donors tapped for the maximum legal contribution, found themselves cash strapped. Senator Clinton's money came largely from squeezing these donors for $2,300 for the primaries and another $2,300 for the general election. The Obama campaign, however, used the Internet for small donations from people who could be re-solicited throughout the campaign. Obama eventually raised more than $265 million for the primaries from more than 2 million individuals. Clinton raised about $215 million, and would end her campaign more than $30 million in debt. Most important, Obama's army of small donors paid for the impressive field organization he would build, drawing on grass-roots support across the country and penetrating states Clinton could not afford to contest. This army is there ready for the general election. The Republicans have not raised near the money the Democrats have and it appears the big donors are staying away and the internet cash has yet to flow in. The one exception to the Republican internet rule was Ron Paul, a psudo-Libertarian candidate who was the most successful candidate at raising funds on the web.

Finally there are several questions about the fairness of the process. Are winner take all primaries fair? In Florida John McCain won 36% of the vote and all 57 delegates. Mitt Romney got 31% of the votes and no delegates. In the Republican party with many of its contests being winner take all it is no wonder states fight to be first and even try to break in line to be first. Perhaps the Republican Party will look at a way to more fairly apportion delegates in the future. Another problem is the caucuses. Many are held at night and voting has to be in person. This eliminates individuals that must work at night, who are in the armed services, and people who are ill, elderly, or housebound for other reasons. Primaries allow for absentee voting so all the electorate can participate. Another innovation would be to hold both Democratic and Republican contests on the same day. This would save money, especially in states where elections are held.

However, here we have been looking back. The Clarion Issue encourages all its readers to get informed of the issues for the next elections and the candidates’ stand on these issues, and as always, we’ll see you at the polls every time they are open.